Down 1000 yuan a month off-season steel market outlook is still characterized by significant downside
It is looking for steel statistics, since mid-October, the domestic steel prices have dropped significantly, the cumulative 上海水磨工作室24小时 decline in more than thousand dollars per ton of steel.
With rebar and hot rolled coil, for example, as of November 18, Hangzhou, Shanghai rebar and hot rolled coil prices were 4630 yuan / ton and 4680 yuan / ton, down 1350 yuan / ton in mid-October, the high price point, respectively, and 1210 yuan / ton. Insiders said that at present, the steel industry characteristics significantly off-season.
On the one hand are coal, iron ore and other raw material prices continued to decline in steel prices driven by high callback; on the other hand is down more than 30% year on year real estate new construction area, resulting in a marked decline in steel demand an end. In the case of supply and demand pattern steel market gradually turned loose and continue down the cost of support, the latter continued weak domestic 上海外菜资源 steel prices or bottom.
Supply and demand for round two weak steel prices fell sharply, looking for a senior researcher steel Cengliang think mainly caused by two factors. On the one hand due to high coal prices were falling rapidly after the policy control, coupled with iron ore prices continued to fall, driven by raw material costs significantly down steel prices high callback; on the other hand, fell more than 30% year on year real estate new construction area, resulting in end steel demand significant decline year on year. Lange Steel Research Center, Wang Guoqing, director of the China Securities, told reporters that the recent steel industry raw materials prices fell significantly, some steel mills purchase price of coke in Shanxi cumulative down 600 yuan / ton, the Platts iron ore price index has fallen to $ 上海24小时按摩 / ton. "The current weak steel market both supply and demand, crude steel production Yajian, autumn and winter heating season air pollution control and peak load shifting production of all steel production release constrain, blast furnace operating rate and yield showed a significant downward trend in November and gradually into the winter, coupled with the recent cold wave ushered in the country, gradually weakened demand for building materials.
"Wang Guoqing expressed.
Due to the rapid sharp decline in steel prices, the current steel production on a monthly profit dropped significantly.
Find the cost of steel steel profit monitoring models show that as of November 18, blast furnace steel mills in east China profit of 542 yuan / ton, the monthly decline of 544 yuan / ton, down 56 yuan / ton in the previous year. For the steel market outlook, Cengliang said that at present, domestic steel prices are still untold bottomed out late or there is still some downside.
On the one hand, coking coal, coke and other raw material prices are still in the downstream channel, the price of raw materials down the negative feedback will drive steel prices continue to weaken; on the other hand, a large area of ??northern cool weather, heavy snowfall, further repression of end demand, taking into account the terminal the seasonal decline in demand for steel, steel inventory to speed will gradually slow down, and tired of the library is expected to increase. Therefore, the pattern of supply and demand in the steel market gradually shifted under the loose and the cost of support to continue down the situation, the latter continued weak domestic steel prices or bottom. Recently strictly control production, Industry and Information Technology Department of Hebei Province and Hebei Province Department jointly issued the ecological environment, "2021, Hebei Province – Notification production program in 2022 heating season the steel industry peak shifting work" (the "Notice"), a clear November 2021 From 15 to 15 March 2022 between the dates of domestic iron and steel smelting enterprises in Hebei Province (including central enterprises, Tianjin enterprises) peak load shifting production, involving areas including Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Xingtai, Cangzhou, Xinji, Chengde, Zhangjiakou Qinhuangdao. This is the Ministry of Industry, Ministry of the Environment eco-released in September 30th – "After two departments regarding the development of 2021 in Beijing, Tianjin and the surrounding areas to inform the steel industry peak load shifting production of the 2022 heating season," the steel industry in Hebei Province peak load shifting production again be issued a document reiterated. "Notice" requirement in November 15, 2021 to December 31, 2021, crude steel production in the region to ensure the completion Yajian objectives and tasks.
Emissions of air pollutants January 1, 2022 to March 15, 2022, in order to reduce heating season increased as the goal, in principle, the relevant market peak shifting production of iron and steel enterprises crude steel production no less than the same period of the previous year 30%. Hebei Province requirements, focusing on the long process of production enterprises to implement load shifting.
Blast furnace shutdown peak shifting device based, can not be replaced in order to reduce the load of production.
Supporting the blast furnace coke, sinter, pellets, lime and other production equipment staggering ratio of not less than the ratio of production of blast furnace staggering. For since 2021 the central environmental inspectors, iron and steel to production capacity, "looking back" presence inspection found illegal activities, capacity utilization more than 120%, not included Industry and Information Technology Department of the steel industry norms announcement steel companies (new production but temporarily except without the announcement of the Ministry of Industry norms enterprises), the above three cases occur each case, the proportion of enterprises peak load shifting production increased by 5 percentage points.
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